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Why Does Vietnam Repeatedly Try to Provoke China,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
Why does Vietnam repeatedly try to provoke China on the recent dispute over South China Sea? With the escalation of the conflict,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Chinese scholars are paying increasingly attention on this issue.
China leading scholar of international studies,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Yan Xuetong,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], said through the media on June 20 that "concluding that China will not use force" gives Vietnam courage to rudely aggravate and complicate the South China Sea issue. He supposes that Vietnam main purpose is to unite those claiming countries around the South China Sea to withstand China by performing military exercise. If China adopted the policy of appeasement,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], other claiming countries will probably follow the example. If China punishes Vietnam,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], they may believe that China bully the weak. In Vietnamese opinion,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], either result will be in its favor,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which made it determine to hold the exercise. Yan said that since ancient times China is unwilling to interfere in neighboring countries domestic affairs and prefers settling disputes through appeasement policy and buying peace,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which gives these tiny greedy countries too many benefits. He believes that China must perform friendly and tough at the same time and proceed to start the negotiation on sovereignty dispute over South China Sea as soon as possible. Indefinitely shelving the dispute does no good to China.
French Le Nouvel Observateur pointed that,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], China has not rushed to retort as before but promises not to take the initiative to resort to force while quietly expanding ocean surveillance power. In contrast,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], trapped by an increasing domestic dependence on oil,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Vietnam has no choice but put in warlike posture in the South China Sea.
There have been a few small-scale military conflicts at sea between China and Vietnam in the past. And now,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], some international analysts believe that the possibility of a repeat of this situation is increasing. National Public Radio quoted Vietnamese experts saying that China and Vietnam have been at "the most dangerous moment since the two sides decided to start friendly relations in 1991". Meanwhile in China,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], voices on the need to "use force to promote peace" from all kinds of media have also been enhanced.
However,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Chinese scholars are relatively calm. Four in five Chinese scholars in a Global Times interview on June 20,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], consider forcing to resolve the South China Sea disputes as "unwise".
Another scholar Sun Xiaoying,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], a researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies of Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], believes that "there might be a war" to Vietnam,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but through neither diplomatic nor military means is the best approach to resolve the disputes,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], because China has yet to make adequate preparations.
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