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Florida Republicans Ready to Toss Obama Out in November
No doubt about it -- Florida Republicans loathe President Barack Obama and are looking forward to defeating him in the 2012 election. Nodoubt about it -- Florida Republicans loathe President Barack Obamaand are looking forward to defeating him in the 2012election. ASunshine State News Poll of likely Republican presidential primaryvoters finds Obama floundering badly with these voters. Only 6percent of Florida Republicans in the poll, conducted by Harrisburg,Pa.-based Voter Survey Service (VSS), approve of Obama’sperformance in the White House, while 89 percent of them disapproveof the job he has done. Washington,D.C.-based GOP consultant Alexandra Fitzpatrick claims Obama'sFlorida numbers are among the worst she's seen. "A Democraticincumbent president would never expect to break even," she said."But at an 89 percent disapproval rating, President Obama canring all the doorbells he likes, he's going to be hard-pressed tofind a friend on the other side of the street."JimLee, president of VSS, told Sunshine State News that Obama’s lowmarks with Florida Republicans will impact campaign strategy in thegeneral 2012election. “Withnumbers this polarizing for the president among voters of theopposing party, Obama’s best hope is to either demonize theeventual GOP nominee and hope some of them stay home in the fall (ifit’s Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich), or, conversely, hope that theeventual nominee is a hard-right conservative like Rick Santorum orRick Perry (unlikely though) and use this as a way to mobilizeturnout among both base Democrats and swing voters who are moremainstream on social issues,” noted Lee. “Thethird, and possibly best, strategy for Obama is to hope a thirdcandidate (Ron Paul, etc.) runs in the general 2012election as an independent who can appeal toconservatives unhappy with the GOP nominee, which could help Obamawin key states with less than a majority of the vote," said Lee."The polling suggests that if Romney is the nominee, it’s verylikely that we will see GOP voters unite around him because of theextreme unpopularity of the president and the economic uncertaintyfacing the nation.” Whenasked how Obama impacted their choice in the presidential primary,which will be held on Jan. 31, 59 percent of Florida Republicans saidthat throwing out the Democratic incumbent was their chief concern,while 33 percent said they are looking to back a proven conservative.“ValidatingRomney in the poll is the fact that most voters say beating Obama ismore important than electing a true conservative, and Romney iswinning a commanding 57 percent of these,” Lee told Sunshine StateNews. “Romney even leads (albeit narrowly) among those who sayelecting a true conservative is most important -- getting 27 percent,compared to Gingrich (25 percent), Santorum (19 percent) and Paul (12percent). This shows many conservatives are OK with him.”Thepoll of 1,266 likely Republican primary voters was taken Jan. 11-14and had a margin of error of +/- 2.75 percent at the 95 percentconfidence level. Thepoll also found that former Gov. Romney ofMassachusetts leads the pack of 2012presidential election candidates in theSunshine State with 46 percent, followed by former U.S. House SpeakerGingrich with 20 percent and former U.S. Sen. Santorum ofPennsylvania with 12 percent. U.S. Rep. Paul of Texas takes 9 percentand Gov. Perry of Texas lags with 3 percent. Republicansinsist they will have a chance to pick up Florida -- and a number ofother swing states that Obama carried in 2008 -- come November. RickWiley, political director of the Republican National Committee, sentout a memo insisting that his side had the wind at its back. “TheGOP has the momentum,” Wiley argued. “It’s all in the numbers.The Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary brought out a recordnumber of voters -- many voting Republican for the first time intheir lives. With over 70 percent of Americans looking for a newdirection, voters are turning decidedly to the Republican Party.“Ananalysis of voter registration numbers demonstrates that thepromising trend is not isolated only to Iowa and New Hampshire,”Wiley added. “In every battleground state for which there isrelevant registration data available, the GOP has either narrowed theregistration gap or increased our lead since 2008. And that’s badnews for Democrats.”Wileypointed to Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire and five other states thatwill be up for grabs in November. “Thereare only a handful of states in which the net change from 2008 totoday favors Democrats, and all are reliably blue states,” Wileywrote. “Needless to say, none of those is on the GOP path to 270electoral votes. That means the GOP enters the 2012election with a stronger position in allremaining states -- all battleground states included -- as comparedto 2008. As enthusiasm during the nominating process continues tofavor us, we expect our registration position to continue to improve.“Thisadds up to trouble for Democrats,” Wiley added. “Their turnoutefforts are already complicated by the fact that there is lessenthusiasm on the Democratic side. Many Democrats, while not yetprepared to jump ship, are dispirited enough by Obama’s failedpromises that they could likely sit out 2012.”Wileypointed to declines in the number of registered Democrats in thosekey states, noting that in Florida -- where Democrats had a 5.9percent advantage over the number of registered Republicans in 2008-- that lead had been whittled to 4.9 percent in September 2011.VSSis the same firm that in 2010 conducted some of the most accuratepolls taken of races in the Florida primary and general election. Ithas conducted hundreds of polls in Pennsylvania,[url=http://www.chronotime.net/]louboutin men[/url], New Jersey, NewYork, Florida, Delaware, Maryland,[url=http://www.yubikeys.net/]true religion jeans outlet[/url], and other states across thenation. It is a leading survey research and political polling firmfor GOP candidates for public office and a variety of corporateclients, trade associations, public relations firms and the media.Thework it did in Florida in 2010, commissioned and reported by SunshineState News, included polls on all races in the primaries and thegeneral election -- some of them taken more than once, as issues andtrends through the summer and fall shifted.RealClearPolitics.comgave VSS/Sunshine State News a tip of the cap after the primaryelections because its poll results, particularly in the surprisegubernatorial race, were nearly "spot on." The electionended with Bill McCollum at 43.5 percent, Rick Scott at 46.5 percentand the spread at plus 2.9 percent. The last VSS/Sunshine poll takenshowed McCollum at 42 percent, Scott at 44 percent and the spread atplus 2 percent. No other polling firm came anywhere near Sunshine'sresult.Leehas 17 years of polling experience and background as a formerlobbyist for the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry and asa special projects coordinator for the Pennsylvania House ofRepresentatives. He has a bachelor of science degree in politicalscience from Lycoming College in Williamsport, Pa., and he's a memberof both the American Association of Public Opinion Research and theAmerican Association of Political Consultants.Theoriginal article by Kevin Derby was published in SunshineState News on Jan. 18, 2012. SunshineState News focuses on the relationship betweenpolitics and business in Florida, speaking to an audience oflawmakers, lobbyists, business and opinion leaders, and allFloridians who expect their leaders to make common-sense decisions.SSN fills a void as the only Floridanews outfit that believes free-market,less-government solutions will address the problems challenging ourstate.